Guides · 5 min read

List decay: the math of a rotting asset

Why a two-year-old list is half fiction, and what the decay curve means for your calendar.

Lists decay for boring reasons: people change jobs (work addresses die with the badge), abandon inboxes, and outgrow interests. Industry estimates cluster around 2–2.5% per month.

The compounding

At 2.2% monthly decay, a 10,000-address list has ~7,650 live addresses after a year and ~5,860 after two. Your subscriber counter still says 10,000. Every metric computed against that denominator — open rate, click rate, revenue per subscriber — is quietly wrong, and getting wronger.

The asymmetry

Dead addresses don't just dilute stats. Mailbox providers read sustained bounces as list-buying behaviour, so the dead part of your list actively punishes delivery to the living part. Decay is not neutral; it's corrosive.

The calendar

  • Monthly: validate new additions (they decay fastest — typos and burners die immediately)
  • Quarterly: full-list validation pass
  • Semi-annually: dormant review — re-permission or suppress people with zero opens in 6 months
  • Before any major send: validate everything you haven't checked in 90 days

The work is minutes per month with tooling, and existential without it. That's the whole pitch for continuous validation — yours truly or anyone else's.

Run this on your own list.